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<div dir="ltr"><div>Hi,</div><div><br></div><div><a href="https://www.bsi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/BSI/Publikationen/Studien/Quantencomputer/Entwicklungstand_QC_V_2_1.html?nn=916616">https://www.bsi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/BSI/Publikationen/Studien/Quantencomputer/Entwicklungstand_QC_V_2_1.html?nn=916616</a><br></div><div><br></div><div>See "Current state (Version 2.1)" near the end of the study report.</div><div><br></div><div>From NIST PQC Forum today:</div><div><br></div><div>"The conclusion of this current version of the study is that quantum <br>
computing is making steady progress towards cryptanalytic relevance <br>
according to the reliable mainstream (fault-tolerant (improved) Shor <br>
algorithm, executed either on a superconducting system with the surface <br>
code or an ion-based system with the color code). Major roadblocks in <br>
this scenario were resolved in 2024, bringing us a lot closer to this <br>
goal even without large disruptions. The conservative estimate is that <br>
cryptographically relevant quantum computers are likely to be available <br>
within 16 years.<br>
<br>
Moreover, there are now a plethora of new developments in error <br>
correction and mitigation as well as hardware with the large progress in <br>
neutral atoms. The landscape is constantly evolving and significant <br>
changes could still occur, leading to unexpected surprises, and most of <br>
the possible disruptive results in this context could accelerate the <br>
development to below a decade.<br>
<br>
Regarding NISQ algorithms, the study currently concludes that the <br>
limited evidence available does not yet permit a conclusive assessment. <br>
However, it makes a cautious assumption of low relevance for cryptanalysis.<br>
<br>
Best wishes,<br>
Kaveh (Bashiri) from BSI, Germany's Federal Office for Information Security<font color="#888888">"<br></font>
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